Assignment: Energy for the Future Exploration Use data from the past to make a prediction about future coal production. When making a prediction, look for trends in the data and use other information to support your prediction.

Coal Production Table
United States Coal Production by Region, 1995–2011 (in million short tons)

Year Appalachian Interior Western
1996 452 173 439
1997 468 171 451
1998 460 168 489
1999 426 163 512
2000 421 145 510
2001 431 147 548
2002 396 147 550
2003 376 146 549
2004 390 146 575
2005 397 150 585
2006 391 151 619
2007 378 147 621
2008 390 147 634
2009 341 146 585
2010 335 156 592
2011 336 170 588

Study the Coal Production Table and find out which region of the United States produced the most coal in 1996 and which region produced the most coal in 2011. Write your answers here.

1996:

2011:

Graph (see next page for graph paper grid)
Using the data from the Coal Production Table, create a graph of coal usage in each region over the years. The x-axis should be years, and the y-axis should be coal production. Use a different symbol or color to represent each region. Remember to include titles and labels.

Scan or take a picture of your graph and submit it with your assignment.

Analysis
Changes over time are called trends. You can see on the graph a downward trend in the Appalachian and Interior regions and an upward trend in the Western region.

Try predicting future coal production. Using a ruler, draw the lines for each region. Go beyond 2011. Draw the line with the same pattern it follows on the graph. The extension of the lines is based on what you predict will happen with coal production.

Questions
1. How much coal will be produced in the year 2020 for each region?

2. What trend would you predict for the next ten years for each region?

3. If people keep using coal in the same way, scientists say there may be enough coal reserves to last 200 to 300 years. Does your graph show trends that match what scientists say? What kinds of factors might cause them not to match?

4. Can you think of any problems that could come from using only 15 years of data to predict trends for the next 100 years? Explain your answer. How could you prevent some of these problems?