nstead of power posing in horses, you are interested in whether music can induce a mere exposure effect at short timescales. You read a paper that claims that it can, reporting a significant mere exposure effect. Alpha level was 0.05, the ratio of true to false effects in this field is 0.7 and the power of this study was 0.8. The probability that this effect is real is

Probability that effect is real = 0.97

Step-by-step explanation:

Given data :

ratio of true to false = 0.7

Alpha level = 0.05

power of study = 0.8

Determine the probability that this effect is real

From the question we can deduce : 70% of events are real , 30% of events are not real

% of real effect = 0.8 * 70% = 56%

% of false effect = alpha level * percentage of unreal events

                          =  0.05 * 30% = 1.5%

summation of effects = 56 + 1.5 = 57.5%

Hence probability that the effect is real

= 56% / 57.5%

= 0.9739 ≈ 0.97