Romi, a production manager, is trying to improve the efficiency of his assembly line. He knows that the machine is set up correctly only 70% of the time. He also knows that if the machine is set up correctly, it will produce good parts 95% of the time, but if set up incorrectly, it will produce good parts only 40% of the time. Romi starts the machine and produces one part before he begins the production run. He finds the first part to be good. Using Bayes theorem, what is the revised probability that the machine was set up correctly?

0.8471

Step-by-step explanation:

Using BAYES THEOREM:

P(correct setup) = 0.7

P(correct setup^c) = 1 - 0.7 = 0.3

P(good part | correct setup) = 0.95

P(good part | Incorrect setup) = 0.4

Probability that a good part is produced :

[P(correct setup) * P(good part | correct setup)] + [P(incorrect setup) * P(good part | Incorrect setup)]

= (0.7 * 0.95) + (0.3 * 0.4) = 0.785

Probability that machine was setup correctly, when he finds the first part to be good :

[P(correct setup) * P(good part | correct setup)] / P(A good part is produced)

= (0.7 * 0.95) / 0.785

= 0.665 / 0.785

= 0.8471

the most boring ever written

step-by-step explanation:

i am writing something. yes, i plan to make it the most boring thing ever written. i go to the store. a car is parked. many cars are parked or moving. some are blue. some are tan. they have windows. in the store, there are items for sale. these include such things as soap, detergent, magazines, and lettuce. you can enhance your life with these products. soap can be used for bathing, be it in a bathtub or in a shower. apply the soap to your body and rinse. detergent is used to wash clothes. place your dirty clothes into a washing machine and add some detergent as directed on the box. select the appropriate settings on your washing machine and you should be ready to begin. magazines are stapled reading material made with glossy paper, and they cover a wide variety of topics, ranging from news and politics to business and stock market information. some magazines are concerned with more recreational topics, like sports card collecting or different kinds of hairstyles. lettuce is a vegetable.

answer: -0.5 would be the most likley outcome

step-by-step explanation: