In a casino in Atlantic City, there are two slot machines: one that pays out 10 % of the time, and one that pays out 20 % of the time. Obviously, you would like to play on the machine that pays out 20 % of the time but you do not know which of the two machines is the more generous. You thus adopt the following strategy: you assume initially that the two machines are equally likely to be the generous machine. You then select one of the two machines at random and put a coin into it. Given that you lose that first bet estimate the probability that the machine you selected is the more generous of the two machines. 1. What do I know?
2. What do I want to find out?
3. What do I expect the answer to be?
4. How do I go from what I know to what I want to find?
5. Is the answer consistent with what I expected?