Shamir loves watching professional basketball. His favorite player, Freddy Rocket, successfully completes 85% of his free throws. During one game, Rocket misses his first four free throws. Shamir says that the next free throw has to be a success since Rocket rarely misses so many in a row. Is Shamir’s reasoning correct?

Yes, Rocket missed the first four free throws, so the fifth one is due to be a success.
No, the probability of Rocket making a free throw is 0.85 over the long run.
Yes, Rocket has a high probability of making free throws, so the next one must go in the basket.
No, it is very unlikely for Rocket to miss so many free throws in a row, so Shamir should expect the player to continue missing baskets.