Consider the ski gondola from Question 3. Suppose engineers decide to reduce the risk of an overload by reducing the passenger capacity to a maximum of 15 skiers. Assuming the maximum load limit remains at 5,000 lb, what is the probability that a group of 15 randomly selected skiers will overload the gondola

The probability that a group of 15 randomly selected skiers will overload the gondola = (3.177 × 10⁻⁵¹)

(almost zero probability showing how almost impossible it is to overload the gondola, therefore showing how very safe the gondola is)

Step-by-step explanation:

Complete Question

A ski gondola carries skiers to the top of the mountain. If the Total weight of an adult skier and the equipment is normally distributed with mean 200 lb and standard deviation 40 lb.

Consider the ski gondola from Question 3. Suppose engineers decide to reduce the risk of an overload by reducing the passenger capacity to a maximum of 15 skiers. Assuming the maximum load limit remains at 5,000 lb, what is the probability that a group of 15 randomly selected skiers will overload the gondola.

Solution

For 15 people to exceed 5000 lb, each person is expected to exceed (5000/15) per skier.

Each skier is expected to exceed 333.333 lb weight.

Probability of one skier exceeding this limit = P(x > 333.333)

This becomes a normal distribution problem with mean = 200 lb, standard deviation = 40 lb

We first standardize 333.333 lbs

The standardized score for any value is the value minus the mean then divided by the standard deviation.

z = (x - μ)/σ = (333.333 - 200)/40 = 3.33

To determine the required probability

P(x > 333.333) = P(z > 3.33)

We'll use data from the normal distribution table for these probabilities

P(x > 333.333) = P(z > 3.33) = 1 - P(z ≤ 3.33)

= 1 - 0.99957

= 0.00043

So, the probability that 15 people will now all be above this limit = (probability of one person exceeding the limit)¹⁵ = (0.00043)¹⁵

= (3.177 × 10⁻⁵¹)

(almost zero probability showing how almost impossible it is to overload the gondola, therefore showing how very safe the gondola is)

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