You are thinking about the things that can go wrong on your trip home over the Thanksgiving break. You have booked a flight with US-Scareways. You know that in 30 percent of the cases the company has canceled the flight you were on. Should such a thing occur, there would be no other air travel option home for you. As a backup. You friend Walter offered you a ride back. However, you know that Walter only has a seat in his car for you with an 80 percent probability. What is the probability of you making it home for the holidays?

The probability that the person reaches home for the holidays is 0.94.

Step-by-step explanation:

A person wants to go home for Thanksgiving and he has booked a flight with US-Scareways.

It is provided that in 30 percent of the cases the company has canceled the flight you were on.

SO there is 70% chance of reaching home without any difficulties.

In case the flight is cancelled, then as a backup the person's friend Walter offers a ride home.

Walter also has a 80% chance of giving the ride. So there is 20% chance the person will not be able to reach hone if his flight gets cancelled.

Consider the tree diagram below.

The events are:

FC = flight is cancelled

FT = Flight is on time

H = reaches home

Compute the probability that the person reaches home as follows:

P (Reaching Home) = P (H|FC) × P (FC) + P (FT)

Thus, the probability that the person reaches home for the holidays is 0.94.

step-by-step explanation:

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