Even with the disastrous crude oil crash in 2015, Mexico's economy still performed well in 2016. However, growth slowed in 2017, and the Mexican Central Bank is revising its growth estimates for 2018 and 2019. Â In 2018, the Mexican GDP grew at 2.0 percent, unchanged from initial estimates, but slightly below the 2.1% achieved in 2017.According to Mexico's national statistics institute, the second quarter of 2018 saw the rate of growth in Mexico's economy contract, due to the cumulative effect of declining production in the oil, agricultural and industrial sectors along with the prospect of a radical leftist regime change set to take power in December. The quarter was projected for a 0.1% contraction in GDP, but the revised numbers now show the rate of decline actually doubled, down a seasonally adjusted 0.2%, compared to the previous quarter.
A number of service sectors, including commercial activity, transportation, financial, and media, which experienced a 1% expansion in the first quarter of 2018, grew just 0.2% in the second quarter. Industrial sectors, such as mining, construction, and manufacturing, declined by 0.3%. Meanwhile, the growth rates of the agriculture, livestock, and fishing industries took a far more significant hit, with a 2.1% decrease. The Mexican economy advanced 0.2% on quarter in the three months to December of 2018, slowing from a downward revision of 0.6% expansion in the previous period, lower than a preliminary estimate of 0.3% and in line with market expectations. The slowdown was mainly due to a contraction in the industrial sector. Â
However, the growth of the Mexican economy is still projected to expand faster in 2018 than in 2017, due largely to accelerated spending that happened before the July 1 presidential election. For 2018 and 2019, economists still expect to see increases of 2.2 and 2.1%, respectively, according to an analysis released in a survey by Citigroup. However, nothing is certain, and some analysts believe there's ample reason for pessimism, such as trade tensions and current political instability concerning the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the impending policy changes of the new president. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), for example, recently downgraded growth forecasts for Mexico in 2019.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
After a slump to just 2.0% GDP growth in 2017, the Mexican economy is projected to grow at 2.5% in 2019 after a 2.3% gain in 2013.
Mexico has a new government as of August 2018, encouraging hope with trade negotiations with the United States, its largest trading partner.
Still, Mexico and its government face several challenges that can disrupt its forecasted growth.
New Mexican President Â
In August 2018, the incoming administration of Mexican president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador (also known as AMLO) stoked a new round of economic uncertainty when he announced his intention to hold a public referendum over whether to cancel the upcoming $13 billion (USD) construction of a new international airport for Mexico City, the largest city by population in the Americas. The project was to be the largest infrastructure project of the previous president, Enrique Peña Nieto. AMLO has stated that in addition to mounting environmental concerns, the planned airport is far too expensive and is embroiled in far too many layers of corruption.
