In january 2014, the “polar vortex” swept across the eastern us leading some media outlets to claim this was the “coldest weather in decades” in baltimore between jan 6 & jan 8. it turns out that only 5 years prior, in 2009, jan 15 – jan 17 were 5 degrees colder in baltimore than the coldest temperatures in 2014. why did these media outlets say it was the “coldest weather in decades”? many statisticians say that it is a mistake to look at weather temperature records the way that media outlets looked at the baltimore "record"; why do you think they say this is a "mistake"?

1. The media outlets often know to misrepresent the fact, which comes out because of two major reasons, the insufficient knowledge of the topic, or trying to get more viewers/readers by pumping up the story. In this case, the media outlets took the lowest temperature, while neglecting the average for the period, thus they used it to say that it was the coldest period in the last decades. Also, by using the title that it was the coldest weather in decades, the people are automatically triggered to read it, thus the media will get more turnout.

2. The statisticians on the other hand, disagreed with the claims of the media outlets. The reason for this was that the media outlets were taking in consideration only a single lowest minimum. That is not the manner in which the lowest temperature in a given period is calculated, but it is the average for of the temperatures for the given period that give a proper picture about the weather conditions.

central asia and the south caucasus are important because their orientation will greatly affect the power and national security planning of large neighboring or interested states (principally, the united states, russia, china, iran, turkey, india, and pakistan). how these states and others think and act strategically in central asia and the south caucasus will influence geopolitical alignments in the region. it is also important to grasp how these states, and others whose interest is acute though less direct (for example, israel, japan, south korea, some gulf arab states), factor central asia and the south caucasus into their strategic thinking.

conversely, the states of central asia and the south caucasus are increasingly dealing with countries other than those we tend to see as having the most direct interest and natural advantages--russia, iran, and turkey. the states of central asia and the south caucasus are looking to a number of other states--for example, india, pakistan, israel, china, south korea and japan--for new trade possibilities and security arrangements. all of these states are increasingly active in both central asia and the south caucasus.

strategic dynamics now cascade across geographic regions. developments in one region can have extensive direct, and second- and third-order consequences other regions. analysts must broaden their focus and not view the region as a traditionally defined set of states. central asia and the south caucasus are a strategic crossroads. they must be understood and analyzed in the larger eurasian/asian context if analysts are to capture all of the cross-regional dynamics that shape these two regions as well as the broader geopolitical landscape around them.

iran is potentially the most influential near-term variable. if a normalization of us-iranian relations takes place, the entire regional picture would change dramatically by changing the strategic calculations of all the regional actors and the major external actors in the two region.

russia's policy will not necessarily be more coherent or benign under president putin. russia probably will continue to be weak but remain relatively stronger than its neighbors and possess more leverage than other actors in the central asian and south caucasus regions. several panelists suggested considering the implications for central asia and the south caucasus of a russia in which power is significantly devolved to its borderlands, or that is even fragmented politically.

so long as afghanistan remains in chaos, which it probably will for a fairly long time, it will be a principal contributor to the most worrisome threats facing central asia: the conjunction of narcotrafficking and militant islam, terrorism, and political instability.