Thomas J. Watson, chairman of IBM in the early 1940s, and Thomas Edison all made predictions about technology that were extremely wrong. Which of the following explains why the predictions of experts are often so far off?
a. Lack of imagination about the uses people would find for technology
b. Lack of imagination about what the public would pay for
c. Lack of imagination about what the public would like
d. All of these

The correct answer is D) All of these

Explanation

Hindsight is the only exact science.

Even today with the advent of big data and predictive analytics using very powerful statistical models and artificial intelligence, there are still degrees of uncertainty that must accepted.

The great scientists mentioned above made some of these predictions based on gut instincts which is largely conditional.

Little wonder why their predictions were so far off.

Cheers!